Mitigating Dynamic Risk in Multi-Modal Perishable Commodity Supply Chain Networks

	MITIGATING DYNAMIC RISK IN MULTI-MODAL PERISHABLE COMMODITY SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORKS
	Edward A. Pohl, Ph.D. Department of Industrial Engineering University of Arkansas 4207 Bell Engineering Center Fayetteville, AR 72701 Phone: (479) 575-6024 Fax: (479) 575-8431 epohl@uark.edu Ashlea R. Bennett, Ph.D. Department of Industrial Engineering University of Arkansas 4207 Bell Engineering Center Fayetteville, AR 72701 Phone: (479) 575-3702 Fax: (479) 575-8431 ashlea@uark.edu Chase Rainwater, Ph.D. Department of Industrial Engineering University of Arkansas 4207 Bell Engineering Center Fayetteville, AR 72701 Phone: (479) 575-2684 Fax: (479) 575-8431 cer@uark.edu Scott J. Mason Ph.D. Department of Industrial Engineering Clemson University 124 Freeman Hall Clemson, SC 29634 Phone: (864) 656-5645 Fax: (864) 656-0795 mason@clemson.edu
	July 1, 2010 - June 30, 2012
	This research focuses on the development of decision support models that mitigate dynamic risk caused by an adversary with an unknown, adaptive objective when allocating scarce fortification resources for transportation infrastructure components in perishable commodity supply chain networks. The assessment of supply chain risk will be from an all-hazards perspective, wherein potential disruptions include both unplanned (i.e., natural disasters) and planned, albeit dynamically changing, adversarial actions. While the methods we develop in this effort will be applicable to a wide variety of supply chain networks, including the transport of a variety of commodities via multi-modal transportation, our implementation efforts will focus on bulk transportation of perishable commodities (e.g., corn, coal, chemicals) on inland waterways in the United States. The primary research questions to be addressed are as follows: how should fortification resources be allocated over time to inland waterway infrastructure components such that the resiliency of perishable commodity supply chain networks is maximized when disruptions are caused by (1) natural disasters, (2) an adversary whose objective is to cause the greatest economic loss, and (3) an adversary whose objective is adaptive and not known with certainty. The latter case is motivated by the conjecture that an adversary’s target is likely to change in response to the decision maker’s fortification investments made at each planning epoch. Therefore, decisions should be made that mitigate both present and future risk. This research will culminate in a decision framework that can guide the allocation of DHS funding to various agencies that have the capability to fortify inland waterway infrastructure components, and identify long-term fortification strategies that are robust to a variety of disruption scenarios.
	Product: In Progress (MBTC DHS-1109)